The protests are continuing in Iran today after what appears to have been an "irregular" election. I wish the Iranian people all the best, but I doubt their efforts will lead to the reform they seek.
The problem here is that tyrants aren't afraid of peaceful demonstrators or people who are willing to die for their cause, these people can cause some temporary disruption but will eventually go back to their lives. The leaders of the unrest (this hardly deserves to be called a revolt) in terms of ideas and actions will be killed or arrested; and the followers, left with no one to guide them, will slowly dwindle and fall silent. Their martyrs will have our sympathy, and their cause will fail. The blood on Ahmadinejad's hands serves no one but Ahmadinejad.
If the Iranian people expect to be free, they must be willing to take stronger action. They must be willing to use force. I have seen unconfirmed "Tweets" of some police wearing green (symbolizing their support of the unrest) and telling citizens that they will try protect them from the Basij. If so, Ahmadinejad may lack sufficient force to bloodily put down the protestors without bringing in the military, but the protestors do not have sufficient strength to force the change they desire. So far this looks too similar to the events at Tiananmen for me to feel anything but concern for the lives and well-being of the protestors.
I've seen some people drawing parallels between this unrest and the American Revolution. They are not the same. We were armed. The Iranian people are not. We were willing to use whatever force was necessary to throw out our former rulers. The Iranian people are willing only to use words. Our rifles, though in shorter supply, were a match for (or better than) those of the army we fought. The Iranian people will face tanks with nothing but rocks and courage. Our advisary's army had a supply and communication line that spanned an ocean aboard sailing ships. The Iranian army can reposition troops in hours, communication on both sides is near instantaneous. The challenge these people face is far greater than the one our founding fathers faced. Hope and ideals will not change the face of a nation; direct action and supplies will. So far the Iranian people lack the will to take action and the supplies to be successful. A man willing to die for his freedom is not a threat. A man willing to fight for his freedom is already free. The Iranian people have far to many of the first, and almost none of the second.
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe the army will side with the people and Ahmadinejad will step down; maybe the Ayatollah will decide his puppet isn't worth this trouble and order him to leave, but I just don't see that happening.
My prayers are with the Iranian people during their struggle. God bless you. I truely hope that you can earn your freedom.
